Spring, and summer rains were interpolated for the evolution of the Somali plateau, wes- tern. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. Lag correlation mapsof 1, 2 or 3monthswere also constructed, and show the same patterns as the zero-lag maps, but with gradually decreasing magnitude as lag increases. 2011; and Martin et al. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. The Northern part of . doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. J Climate 26:53975418. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . PubMedGoogle Scholar. Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. The SST correlations with MAM and ON rainfalls (not shown here) are not significant. color:#fff; Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. The left-hand column shows the observed seasonal totals (CRU3.0) for reference. The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. 3a, b (and also with those not shown). It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. 0000128300 00000 n {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. Only Diro et al. (2009a, b); and Diro et al. Temperature in Ethiopia decreased to 23.35 celsius in 2021 from 23.38 celsius in 2020. 7a). Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. Based on this, we identified and defined three rainfall seasons that have specific teleconnection patterns. These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. Even though scientists have no doubt that climate is warming, natural climate variability will always occur. However, the effects of the IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted to the western part of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border. Int J Climatol 24:13451358. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. (1999). doi:10.1256/qj.05.223, Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. All model data were re-gridded to a common grid, which we chose to be that of HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Basic descriptive statistics for rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature based on decades from 1961 to 2015. 2015: Journal of Climate, 28(23), DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1. The study used 4 km 4 Expand Prediction of bimodal monsoonal rainfall in the central dry zone of Myanmar using teleconnections with global sea surface temperatures Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. " /> Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. 156 45 color: #FFFFFF; 0000011094 00000 n Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity. Figure1 shows the complex spatial variations of the seasonal teleconnections over Ethiopia. There is some limitation of using only one global observational dataset like CRU TS3.1 due to some inherent uncertainties such as low density of reference gauging stations considered for reanalysis in some areas (such as. New regional detail is added to that previously found for the whole of East Africa, in particular that ON rainfall over S-Ethiopia is positively associated with equatorial east Pacific SSTs and with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. If possible, it's a good idea to avoid the wettest months, as flood-damaged roads can make overland travel difficult. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS IN CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY, ETHIOPIA | Climate change impacts people's livelihoods climate change impacts ecosystem services how do people . These are MarchMay (MAM), JulySeptember (JAS) and OctoberNovember (ON). Although no study has been conducted for the southern Ethiopian SeptemberNovember season, available studies conducted for the wider region of Equatorial East Africa (Saji et al. (Rain amount is presented in mm). The SSTs indices considered over the Indian Ocean are the central Indian Ocean index (CIndO) average over (55E95E and 25S10N) as described in Rowell (2013), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is the average over (10S10N and 50E70E) minus the average over (10S0 and 90E110E) as described in Saji et al. However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. GCMs are based on a sound physical representation of the real world, and can consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change. volume129,pages 173186 (2017)Cite this article. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. Amasco Ceiling Fan Review, 10 March 2021.DOI: 10.1038 . Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in 3b). Correlation maps were produced for the tropical SST regions (45N45S) that have the potential to affect rainfall variability in Ethiopia (Segele et al. The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. The remaining area were ranging from low to high erosion risk class. Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. 2009a, b; Diro et al. In analyzing the results, the researchers found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. 0000014469 00000 n For JulySeptember (hereafter JAS), which is the main rainfall season over most parts of the country, also locally known as Kiremt, we found strong and statistically significant rainfall negative correlations with Nio3.4, the IOD and CIndO SSTs. We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. Globally, climate change is one of the most important environmental issues and challenges of the twenty-first century (UNFCCC 2007).Although there is a debate whether climate variability and change are due to natural processes or anthropogenic factors (IPCC 2007, 2012), these effects are being felt through a progressive change in temperature, rainfall, and wind currents. Seasonal forecasting. 9. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Basic climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind, evapotranspiration, and aridity are considered and their spatial distribution is analyzed. Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. (Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections to GHA.) However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. We find there are three distinct rainfall seasons in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns. 2011 Mar 2;4:30. doi: 10.1186 . Int J Climatol 17:117135. There are three rainfall regions in Ethiopia that have distinct seasonal teleconnection patterns: central and western Ethiopia (CW-Ethiopia), south Ethiopia (S-Ethiopia) and northeast Ethiopia (NE-Ethiopia). Int J Climatol 29:10751100. Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. doi:10.1029/2009GL038416, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2013) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. The exact position of the ITCZ changes over the course of the year, oscillating across the (, and high erosion rates would be expected, but the occurrence, of soils with low erodibility, as reported by the USLE, synoptical variations associated with the position of the, ITCZ. This variability ranges over many time and space scales such as localized thunderstorms and tornadoes, to larger-scale storms, to droughts, to multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century time scales. 2014). } Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. 0000005621 00000 n @'d\0KxI(=|` There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. The physical mechanisms of these relationships are presented in previous studies (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. 18th Floor Balcony, For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is.
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